Titlebook: Elicitation; The Science and Art Luis C. Dias,Alec Morton,John Quigley Book 2018 Springer International Publishing AG 2018 Preference Elic

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Elicitation: State of the Art and Science,from human health (swine flu); provision of public services (airport location); natural hazards (assessment of the risk of earthquakes) and environmental protection (in the case of radioactive waste) where elicitation was or could have been profitably used to inform decisions. It is often argued tha

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Validation in the Classical Model,ical validation. Using data in which experts quantify uncertainty on variables from their fields whose true values are known post hoc, this chapter explains how validation is performed in the Classical Model for structured expert judgment and reviews results for different combination methods.

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SHELF: The Sheffield Elicitation Framework,ert knowledge elicitation exercises to give a transparent and reliable way of collecting expert opinions. The framework is based on the principles of behavioural aggregation where a facilitator-guided group interact and share information to arrive at a consensus. It was originally designed for helpi

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IDEA for Uncertainty Quantification,t. The two key mechanisms by which judgements may be pooled across experts are through striving for consensus, via behavioural aggregation, where experts share and discuss information, and via mathematical methods, where judgements are combined using a mechanistic rule. Mixed approaches combine elem

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Elicitation and Calibration: A Bayesian Perspective,dgement studies. The few that exist emphasise different aggregation models, but none build a full Bayesian model to combine the judgements of multiple experts into the posterior distribution for a decision maker. Historically, Bayesian concepts have identified issues with current modelling approache

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