Titlebook: Elicitation; The Science and Art Luis C. Dias,Alec Morton,John Quigley Book 2018 Springer International Publishing AG 2018 Preference Elic

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María Manzano,Manuel Crescencio Morenoety Authority have provided the most detailed and thorough prescription of the procedures and processes needed to conduct an expert judgement study. We critically review this from a Bayesian perspective, asking how it might need modifying if Bayesian models are included to analyse and aggregate the expert judgements.

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Elias Karakitsos,Lambros Varnavidesmethods for arriving at the partial values and weighting them to arrive at an overall value score, including both traditional methods relying on cardinal assessment, and the MACBETH approach which uses qualitative difference judgements. A running example of a house choice problem is used to illustrate the different elicitation approaches.

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Elicitation: State of the Art and Science,pters in the book, which, we argue, shows that there is a huge body of knowledge and expertise about how to elicit both probabilities and preferences in important social problems, and conclude with future trends that make the subject of this book (in our view) particularly timely.

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Elicitation and Calibration: A Bayesian Perspective,ety Authority have provided the most detailed and thorough prescription of the procedures and processes needed to conduct an expert judgement study. We critically review this from a Bayesian perspective, asking how it might need modifying if Bayesian models are included to analyse and aggregate the expert judgements.

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Multiattribute Value Elicitation,methods for arriving at the partial values and weighting them to arrive at an overall value score, including both traditional methods relying on cardinal assessment, and the MACBETH approach which uses qualitative difference judgements. A running example of a house choice problem is used to illustrate the different elicitation approaches.

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Eliciting Multi-Criteria Preferences: ELECTRE Models,d by the decision maker. In this chapter we discuss the elicitation of an outranking-based preference model, focusing on the valued outranking relation used in the ELECTRE III and ELECTRE TRI methods.

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Expert Judgment Based Nuclear Threat Assessment for Vessels Arriving in the US,edictive probability model using log-linear regression. Results are based on a proof-of-concept questionnaire completed by eight experts in port security. The model and parameter estimates obtained are used to demonstrate the type of predictions that can be obtained.