| 書目名稱 | Predictive Behavior | | 副標(biāo)題 | An Experimental Stud | | 編輯 | Gunnar Brennscheidt | | 視頻video | http://file.papertrans.cn/755/754579/754579.mp4 | | 叢書名稱 | Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems | | 圖書封面 |  | | 描述 | This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (witha total of 167 independent subjects) on forecastingbehavior. In all experiments, the time series to beforecasted was generated by an abstract econometricmodelinvolving two or three artificial exogenous variables. Thisdesignprovides an optimal background for rationalexpectations and least-squareslearning. As expected, thesehypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behaviorsatisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lackofrationality are studied: Concentration on changes ratherthan levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation ofvolatile exogenousvariables. Some learning behavior isobserved. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts suchas prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc.,arestudied. | | 出版日期 | Book 1993 | | 關(guān)鍵詞 | Erwartungsbildung; Expectation Formation; Experimentelle Wirtschaftsforschung; Rationality of Expectati | | 版次 | 1 | | doi | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-95718-5 | | isbn_softcover | 978-3-540-57311-1 | | isbn_ebook | 978-3-642-95718-5Series ISSN 0075-8442 Series E-ISSN 2196-9957 | | issn_series | 0075-8442 | | copyright | Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1993 |
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