Titlebook: Managing Uncertainty, Mitigating Risk; Tackling the Unknown Nick B. Firoozye,Fauziah Ariff Book 2016 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The

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Building on Probability: Uncertainty and UVaRate management. As we saw in Chapter 4, probability is the basic building block for a broad range of applications and governs the unknown in any repeatable outcome. Moreover, it works well for a broad range of cases where outcomes are not repeatable, but estimates can be refined.

陳腐思想

Managing Uncertainty: A Modern Necessityeetings both have impacts on markets and on the risk of a portfolio. While it is not absolutely clear when the unknown can be probabilised and when it cannot, it should be clear that focusing on probability alone limits risk practitioners and prevents them from addressing important, possibly adverse events which firms could face.

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Final Thoughtsve entered a new post-crisis regulatory age in which banks have to evolve not only to meet regulatory mandates but also to be resilient enough to withstand the uncertainty that regulators themselves introduce.

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The Backdropbeing acknowledged by many of the leading mathematicians over the years from Bernoulli to Kolmogorov and the founders of all the major schools of economics including Keynes, Hayek and Friedman. In today’s financial risk management, risk is the primary and for the most part only consideration, and pr

藝術(shù)

Managing Uncertainty: A Modern Necessitynot easy to put into modelling frameworks. A significant number of financial outcomes are dictated by uncertainty, rather than probability. Elections are often modelled using probability, while board meetings are fraught with uncertainty. Consequently, it is more straightforward to forecast an elect