Titlebook: Macroeconomic Survey Expectations; Michael P. Clements Book 2019 The Editor(s) and The Author(s) 2019 Time series econometrics.Economic fo

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Assessing the Point Predictions,n desirable characteristics, such as the forecast and forecast error being uncorrelated. There are differences between the evaluation of survey and model forecasts. An obvious one is that survey forecasts cannot be compared to their expected accuracy given the in-sample fit (past track record) of th

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Consistency of the Point Forecasts and Probability Distributions,negative (output will decline) in upcoming quarters. Are these different types of forecasts consistent one with another? For example, can the point forecasts be interpreted as the means of the histograms? Although a histogram does not fully reveal the probability density function, a lower and upper

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Expectations Shocks and the Macroeconomy,ions. Exogenous (or structural) expectations shocks are identified by using one of the identification schemes reviewed in this chapter, which include short-run restrictions, and selecting shocks to maximize the contribution to the forecast-error variance decomposition of certain variables. In some c

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Postscript,ng that the economy responds only with a lag to policy instruments. The outlook for the economy also affects prospects for firms and consumers and affects their plans and savings and investment behaviour. Many central banks have developed and maintain models designed to forecast future developments,

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