Titlebook: Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories; Edward E. Leamer Book 2009 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2009 Econometrics.Economic Growth.Forecas

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Clues: Temporal Ordering of Components of GDPe measures..A sensible first place to look for the cycle drivers are the investment components of GDP: inventories, business spending on equipment and software, business spending on structures (office buildings and factories), consumer spending on durables, and consumer spending on new homes and hom

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More Clues: Episodic Forecasting with Components of Conference Board’s Index of Leading Indicators. That is the order of declines going into recessions and the order of the recovery as well; Usually, but not always. The recession of 1953 was different, and so was 2001..The components of GDP are not the only place to look. There is a vast set of additional variables that might be studied for addi

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The Art of Drawing Causal Inferences from Nonexperimental Datacially began. In chap. 13, we learned that an “inverted” yield curve and a drop in weekly hours in manufacturing often preceded recessions. Before discussing those important findings we issued the warning not to jump to causal interpretations merely from those temporal orderings. Movements in these

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In Search of Recession Causese three ingredients and cook up some conclusions about the causes of recessions. This is not going to be easy. We are entering a land ruled by Uncertainty and Ambiguity. If you expect to be comfortable here, you will need Faith.

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