Titlebook: Cognitive Strategies in Stochastic Thinking; Roland W. Scholz Book 1987 D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland 1987 Thought.info

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Toward an Understanding of Individual Decision Making Under Uncertaintyknowledge about . or .. Who actually knows all the possible alternative interventions if some technical inventory won’t function, for instance, if a car refuses to start? Sometimes the alternatives under consideration are seemingly clear, but there is incomplete knowledge about the outcomes. Even if

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The ‘Base-Rate Fallacy’ — Heuristics and/or the Modeling of Judgmental Biases by Information Weightsed with human decision behavior and probability judgments. Generally, the term ‘base—rate fallacy’ denotes the phenomenon that when people are exposed to additional or diagnostic information about the probability of an event, they often show insufficient consideration of prior actuarial knowledge, h

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A Conceptualization of the Multitude of Strategies in Base-Rate Problems; SCHOLZ, 1981; PHILLIPS, 1983, or the critique presented in Chapter 2.3. above; positive exceptions being MONTGOMERY & SVENSON, 1983; HUBER, 1983; ALLWOOD & MONTGOMERY, 1981, 1982), very little research has been undertaken until now that may be regarded as process studies in probability judgments.

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Modes of Thought and Problem Framing in the Stochastic Thinking of Students and Experts (Sophisticatd probability judgments. The modes of thought, which are considered to be crucial for both a more differentiated understanding and for the development of a model of stochastic thinking, are the complementary modes of . versus . thought.