Titlebook: Behavioral Decision Analysis; Florian M. Federspiel,Gilberto Montibeller,Matthia Book 2024 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s)

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Should an Analyst Share Calibration Information with Experts?,able to calibrate the expert’s judgmental errors, and then (ii) obtain judgments for focal quantities (quantities of interest but without historical data), adjust them using the calibration information, and then use the adjusted judgments to assist decision making. In such situations, should a decis

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The Role of Environmental Instability in Detecting and Responding to Signals of Impending Regime Shn the face of impending change, we are often required to both make accurate predictions about when a regime shift occurs and to change our decisions in response to these shifts. Past research has suggested that people exhibit a systematic bias when it comes to estimating the probability of a regime

Bouquet

The Social Psychology of the Wisdom of Crowds (with a New Section on Recent Advances),her collectives can be wise. The famous Asch (1955) studies left the impression that collective judgment is easily harmed since individuals conform too readily to what others say. Research on the wisdom of crowds, of course, demonstrates the benefits of collective judgment over individual judgment.

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Predicting Behavior in Games: Loss Aversion vs. Rank Dependent Utility vs. Range Utility Theory,n non-strategic settings over the last 40?years. We draw attention to some serious limitations of rank dependence when it comes to game-theoretic settings. First, in strategic settings where the probability of payoffs may be determined by the joint choice of all players, ranking outcomes (in a matri

Cholagogue

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When Are We Willing to Wait? Prescriptive Challenges in Evaluating Intertemporal Outcomes, to make choices consistent with a constant discount rate. We first present normative models for time preferences, then discuss descriptive results for choices between single outcomes occurring at different times. People often have different implicit discount rates for different types of scenarios,

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The Near-Miss Bias,sign of warning, but may lead to unwarranted increases in risk taking behavior in similar future situations. However, still fairly little is known about the bias and its behavioral underpinnings. What defines a near-miss event and how does it influence risk taking behavior? What triggers the near-mi

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Entreaty

Team Decision Making,-maker is usually modeled as an individual, but most organizational and managerial decisions are taken at a team level, e.g. by committees, boards of directors, and work teams. In the past two decades, behavioral and experimental economics made substantial progress in documenting and understanding b

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