Titlebook: Bayesian Analysis and Uncertainty in Economic Theory; Richard M. Cyert,Morris H. DeGroot Book 1987 Richard M. Cyert and Morris H. DeGroot

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Lecture Notes in Computer Sciencergent 1981). Muth’s hypothesis was that the mean expectation of firms with respect to some phenomenon, say price, was equal to the prediction that would be made by the relevant economic theory. Muth gives his reasons for believing in the hypothesis, proceeds to develop it further, and does some test

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Olivier Mangin,Pierre-Yves Oudeyerconvenient way of introducing learning into models of firm behavior and have built into many of these models the capacity of managers to make probability judgments about possible changes in price and output by rival firms. In fact, one of the main contributions of this book is the demonstration that

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Bayesian Analysis and Uncertainty in Economic Theory

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https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-46843-3em of making a decision on a large investment without adequate knowledge. The most promising approach to decision making in these circumstances is a sequential approach in which the decision in each phase is designed to gather information that is useful for subsequent decisions (Harpaz and Thomadaki