標(biāo)題: Titlebook: Experts, Social Scientists, and Techniques of Prognosis in Cold War America; Christian Dayé Book 2020 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and Th [打印本頁] 作者: ARSON 時間: 2025-3-21 19:22
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作者: 外觀 時間: 2025-3-21 21:03 作者: Euthyroid 時間: 2025-3-22 03:19 作者: 假裝是你 時間: 2025-3-22 07:09 作者: 潔凈 時間: 2025-3-22 09:08 作者: gospel 時間: 2025-3-22 15:52 作者: gospel 時間: 2025-3-22 20:15
Biki Kumar Behera,Neeraj Agarwaleodore J. Gordon founded the Institute for the Future (IFTF) and carried out Delphi studies on problems beyond military interests. And with the support of Paul Kecskemeti, Lincoln P. Bloomfield from MIT’s Center for International Studies (CENIS) began to use political gaming as a method of both rese作者: 原始 時間: 2025-3-23 00:46 作者: 方便 時間: 2025-3-23 03:10 作者: Extricate 時間: 2025-3-23 08:54
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-32781-1historiography of the social sciences; expertise; foreign policy; the RAND corporation; Cold War culture作者: 變化 時間: 2025-3-23 12:49 作者: MILL 時間: 2025-3-23 17:00 作者: 非實體 時間: 2025-3-23 20:22
Book 2020ion, an American think tank?with close relations to the armed forces,?Dayé analyses the development?of two techniques of prognosis, the Delphi technique and Political Gaming.?..Based on archival research and interviews,?the chapters explore the history of this series of experiments to understand how作者: 手術(shù)刀 時間: 2025-3-24 00:21 作者: 保全 時間: 2025-3-24 02:32
Book 2020 to craft prognoses...This consideration of the expert’s role in Cold War society and what that can tell us about the role of the expert today will be of interest to students and scholars across the history of science, the sociology of knowledge, future studies, the history of the Cold War, social science methodology, and social policy.?.作者: Sinus-Rhythm 時間: 2025-3-24 06:39 作者: 表示問 時間: 2025-3-24 11:25
Biki Kumar Behera,Neeraj Agarwalpublic profited from the assurance that science was there to level out possible irrationalities in elite decision-making processes. And finally, the scientific experts profited from the authority accredited to them, and tried their best to nurture it.作者: GROSS 時間: 2025-3-24 17:30
,The Oracle’s Epistemology: Expert Opinions as Scientific Material, 1955–1960,n expert opinions and scientific hypotheses. They argue that provided a shared set of evidence exists, a group of experts can assess the degree of which this set of evidence confirms a given hypothesis.作者: cluster 時間: 2025-3-24 20:10 作者: macular-edema 時間: 2025-3-24 23:28
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-0457-7further increased the amount of hope and trust in its abilities. This hope met with the need of foreknowledge for decision-making. Considerable effort was spent at the RAND Corporation to develop techniques of prognosis that made systematic use of expert opinions to deliver ideas on the future.作者: 不持續(xù)就爆 時間: 2025-3-25 03:40 作者: 靦腆 時間: 2025-3-25 10:40
Handbook of Marriage and the Familyom the perspective of a Soviet strategist, and estimate the number of atomic bombs that had to be delivered on target to considerably damage the US economy. Unlike later studies, this first Delphi combined the use of both quantitative and qualitative research techniques, thus allowing for a mediated interaction between the participating experts.作者: 側(cè)面左右 時間: 2025-3-25 12:27
Alberto Apostolico,Maxime Crochemoreic modeling. The chapter thus first briefly sketches the development of game theory and then proceeds to describe the four rounds of political gaming that were carried out by RAND’s Social Science Division.作者: 浪費物質(zhì) 時間: 2025-3-25 17:20 作者: Genistein 時間: 2025-3-25 21:57 作者: 六邊形 時間: 2025-3-26 03:26 作者: osteopath 時間: 2025-3-26 08:18 作者: 脖子 時間: 2025-3-26 12:31 作者: Curmudgeon 時間: 2025-3-26 15:42
,The Boredom of the Crowd: The Long-Range Forecasting Delphi, 1963–1964,ordon did not consider the principles that Helmer and Nicholas Rescher, in “On the Epistemology of the Inexact Sciences,” had proposed a few years earlier. While the long-range Delphi study became the paradigmatic case and thus influenced the use of the technique for the decades to come, its methodological shortcomings quickly became apparent.作者: AND 時間: 2025-3-26 20:51 作者: 1分開 時間: 2025-3-27 00:05
Experts, Think Tanks, and the Delicate Balance of Public Trust,account of the RAND Corporation, a think tank founded in 1947 as a cooperative project between the United States Air Force and Douglas Aircraft Company with headquarters in Santa Monica, California. Soon after, RAND severed ties with Douglas and registered as a non-profit corporation..Over the first作者: 下船 時間: 2025-3-27 03:26 作者: 得意人 時間: 2025-3-27 06:34 作者: outer-ear 時間: 2025-3-27 13:15 作者: 小卷發(fā) 時間: 2025-3-27 17:34 作者: palette 時間: 2025-3-27 21:22
Conclusion: The Strength of Epistemic Hopes,eodore J. Gordon founded the Institute for the Future (IFTF) and carried out Delphi studies on problems beyond military interests. And with the support of Paul Kecskemeti, Lincoln P. Bloomfield from MIT’s Center for International Studies (CENIS) began to use political gaming as a method of both rese
