標(biāo)題: Titlebook: Digressions in Elementary Probability; The Unexpected in Me Edward Beltrami Book 2024 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), unde [打印本頁(yè)] 作者: monster 時(shí)間: 2025-3-21 16:21
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書目名稱Digressions in Elementary Probability讀者反饋學(xué)科排名
作者: A精確的 時(shí)間: 2025-3-21 21:37
978-3-031-70053-8The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerl作者: 表否定 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 02:06
Edward BeltramiEntertaining and informative topics of interest to social scientists.Insights into medicine and unexpected outcomes in sports and in voting, among other topics.Provides guidance to increase insight in作者: 流行 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 06:58
Quantitative Methods in the Humanities and Social Scienceshttp://image.papertrans.cn/e/image/284774.jpg作者: 使糾纏 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 11:07
The Remarkable Streak of Joe Di Maggio,athematician Simeon-Denis Poisson. In later chapters we treat Poisson processes more generally but our primary interest here is the role of the Poisson as an approximation to the Binomial distribution.作者: 搏斗 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 15:08
More Fallacies,on. The first is known as . which has already come up in our previous discussion of “hot hands” in basketball (see, in this connection, reference [16]). Simpson, by the way, is the same Simpson that makes an appearance later when we discuss code-breaking at Bletchley Park during the Second World War.作者: 搏斗 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 20:45
Digressions in Elementary Probability978-3-031-70051-4Series ISSN 2199-0956 Series E-ISSN 2199-0964 作者: 散開 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 23:31 作者: 只有 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 02:48
on. The first is known as . which has already come up in our previous discussion of “hot hands” in basketball (see, in this connection, reference [16]). Simpson, by the way, is the same Simpson that makes an appearance later when we discuss code-breaking at Bletchley Park during the Second World War.作者: Coronary-Spasm 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 07:09
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-65074-2athematician Simeon-Denis Poisson. In later chapters we treat Poisson processes more generally but our primary interest here is the role of the Poisson as an approximation to the Binomial distribution.作者: JOT 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 11:09
Arezou Yaghoubian,Junko Ozao-Choy placed in a toxic setting. Although it was generally understood that random mutations provide the raw material for natural selection among higher organisms it was still controversial .. In a landmark paper published in 1943 biologists Luria and Delbrück [24] successfully carried out some experiment作者: exorbitant 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 15:53 作者: 個(gè)阿姨勾引你 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 21:48 作者: commute 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 01:24
on. The first is known as . which has already come up in our previous discussion of “hot hands” in basketball (see, in this connection, reference [16]). Simpson, by the way, is the same Simpson that makes an appearance later when we discuss code-breaking at Bletchley Park during the Second World War作者: configuration 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 04:31
r whether a drug is more effective than a placebo (aspirin, say, in preventing heart attacks within a five-year span). In each case two groups of individuals are recruited having similar medical profiles and then randomly assigned to one protocol or other. We want to test whether any observed differ作者: mechanism 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 06:33
relevant data can be found in the earlier section called “More Fallacies” but for convenience the table of collapsed scores is reproduced below. My goal is to use the hypothesis testing procedure reviewed in the previous vignette to add something different to the biased estimation analysis of Miller作者: Ornithologist 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 14:42 作者: Blood-Clot 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 15:59
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-26809-0take place in the plane at random and that if S is any subset of the plane, then N(S) counts the number of events that occurs within S. If S and S′ are disjoint subsets then we require that N(S) and N(S′) be independent random variables (.) and that N(S) depend only on the area of S and not on its p作者: 輕觸 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 21:28
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-6876-1ussion with a different example of a sequence of Bernoulli events by looking at a simple coin-tossing game between two opponents. The first person wins a dollar from the other player if the binary digit is one (indicating a head); otherwise he losses a dollar to his opponent when the digit is zero (作者: 轎車 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 02:26
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-0903-2A streak of 76 consecutive heads occur in a coin tossing game. The loser remarks that . (from the play . [Tom Stoppard, 1967]).作者: CODA 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 06:45
Jill Q. Klausner,David C. Chen MDI’ll introduce the topic through some informal arguments and then go on to a formal proof. An alternate take will appear in the section on Restricted Choice using Bayes Theorem. In the subsequent discussion I follow the reasoning and even some of the wording in the striking paper by Miller and Sanjurjo [5] rather closely.作者: figurine 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 11:20 作者: Inclement 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 13:44 作者: 有雜色 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 19:35
In the previous section we saw that a random sample of per-capita cancer rates by county can exhibit considerable variation depending on sample size. 作者: AXIS 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 22:25
Tsukemono — die Kunst des EinlegensMedical screenings can be a source of well intentioned but seriously flawed judgements by doctors due to a cognitive failure in assessing conditional data. I provide a striking example here concerning a common procedure to screen for colon cancer in which, as will be seen, Bayes Theorem lurks in the background.作者: hypertension 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 03:33
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-1429-1The spooky quality of coincidences rarely fails to fascinate and confound people who experience them. What I hope to show is that many, perhaps most, coincidences are less amazing than they first appear to be.作者: 清澈 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 06:18 作者: 安定 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 08:32
Christopher P. McKay,Rafael Navarro-GonzálezThis section and the one that follows are a bit more technical and makes use of continuous random variables unlike the rest of this book.作者: PAC 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 16:16
Success Runs in Bernoulli Trials,A streak of 76 consecutive heads occur in a coin tossing game. The loser remarks that . (from the play . [Tom Stoppard, 1967]).作者: 采納 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 19:39
A Subtle Bias,I’ll introduce the topic through some informal arguments and then go on to a formal proof. An alternate take will appear in the section on Restricted Choice using Bayes Theorem. In the subsequent discussion I follow the reasoning and even some of the wording in the striking paper by Miller and Sanjurjo [5] rather closely.作者: 遺留之物 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 00:14
Restricted Choice,The simplest and perhaps most persuasive argument for the selection bias was provided by Miller and Sanjurjo [6] employing Bayes Theorem and I can do no better than to follow their reasoning and even some of their wording.作者: CHOP 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 01:40
,Another Conundrum: What Does the Crowd Size at Wimbledon’s Tennis Match Tell Us About Baseball BattI want to discuss a curious finding that appears to defy intuition. I begin by reviewing a classical estimation procedure in which we have a random variable having a normal density function with unknown average or mean θ and a unit variance. What needs to be estimated is the unknown mean θ.作者: judicial 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 09:03
Medical Misreadings,In the previous section we saw that a random sample of per-capita cancer rates by county can exhibit considerable variation depending on sample size. 作者: Instinctive 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 11:38 作者: 最小 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 17:41
What Are the Odds of That?,The spooky quality of coincidences rarely fails to fascinate and confound people who experience them. What I hope to show is that many, perhaps most, coincidences are less amazing than they first appear to be.作者: 黑豹 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 19:46
,Turing’s Evidence,Most accounts of Alan Turing’s time at Bletchley Park focus on his achievements in breaking the Enigma code but until 2012 little was known about his use of Bayesian methods to solve problems in cryptology. I give here a brief summary of how Turing approached one such problem following the historical summaries in Zabell [39] and Simpson [38].作者: labyrinth 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 01:10
The Paradox of Random Arrivals,This section and the one that follows are a bit more technical and makes use of continuous random variables unlike the rest of this book.作者: 事情 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 05:50
Arezou Yaghoubian,Junko Ozao-Choyven below. The key insight for interpreting their results is a very simple property of the Poisson distribution, namely that the mean and variance are the same, and this is the reason why this is of interest to us.作者: legislate 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 06:40 作者: Aromatic 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 11:12 作者: miniature 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 15:56
Hot Hands in Basketball,lieve that streak shooting is a true phenomenon. The results of the Gilovich et al. study remained controversial until Miller and Sanjurjo shed new light on the question by showing that Gilovich et al. underestimated the phenomenon of “hot hands” or “being in the zone”.作者: CLAIM 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 21:56 作者: heartburn 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 02:01 作者: CLASH 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 06:28 作者: aplomb 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 08:54 作者: 假 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 13:35 作者: Crumple 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 18:40
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-6876-1s a dollar from the other player if the binary digit is one (indicating a head); otherwise he losses a dollar to his opponent when the digit is zero (tails). Using a fair coin one expects, as a result of the Law of Large Numbers, that the average gain (or loss) after a large number of tosses to tend to zero as n increases.作者: 消極詞匯 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 21:13
The Inverse Square Root Law,e disjoint subsets then we require that N(S) and N(S′) be independent random variables (.) and that N(S) depend only on the area of S and not on its position or shape (.).The spatial counting process is called Poisson if作者: 含糊 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 00:48
Runs, Again,s a dollar from the other player if the binary digit is one (indicating a head); otherwise he losses a dollar to his opponent when the digit is zero (tails). Using a fair coin one expects, as a result of the Law of Large Numbers, that the average gain (or loss) after a large number of tosses to tend to zero as n increases.作者: 失誤 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 08:05 作者: Flat-Feet 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 11:28 作者: 小蟲 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 13:45 作者: Friction 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 20:10
2199-0956 xt, another medical case study this time concerning some tricky questions about the effectiveness of colonoscopy and other medical interventions. A brief discussion of the mathematics of clinical trials, follow978-3-031-70053-8978-3-031-70051-4Series ISSN 2199-0956 Series E-ISSN 2199-0964 作者: 態(tài)度暖昧 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 20:59
, not just in your backyard, may not be all that small. As the Poisson approximation shows, a cluster is likely to happen somewhere by chance and will affect someone other than you and your community. When it happens to you it induces skepticism and distrust (see Gawande [18]). This is a common prob作者: medieval 時(shí)間: 2025-3-31 03:18
t it can be refuted. This is analogous to proving a theorem in mathematics by assuming the result is false and then showing that this leads to a contradiction implying that the result must in turn have been true all along. If H. is true there will still be detectable differences due to sampling erro作者: BINGE 時(shí)間: 2025-3-31 08:10
Cancer Clusters,, not just in your backyard, may not be all that small. As the Poisson approximation shows, a cluster is likely to happen somewhere by chance and will affect someone other than you and your community. When it happens to you it induces skepticism and distrust (see Gawande [18]). This is a common prob作者: 小丑 時(shí)間: 2025-3-31 11:22
Clinical Trials,t it can be refuted. This is analogous to proving a theorem in mathematics by assuming the result is false and then showing that this leads to a contradiction implying that the result must in turn have been true all along. If H. is true there will still be detectable differences due to sampling erro作者: bacteria 時(shí)間: 2025-3-31 15:25
The Remarkable Streak of Joe Di Maggio,athematician Simeon-Denis Poisson. In later chapters we treat Poisson processes more generally but our primary interest here is the role of the Poisson as an approximation to the Binomial distribution.作者: Ordeal 時(shí)間: 2025-3-31 17:59 作者: HERE 時(shí)間: 2025-3-31 22:30 作者: 放大 時(shí)間: 2025-4-1 05:20 作者: PIZZA 時(shí)間: 2025-4-1 07:27
More Fallacies,on. The first is known as . which has already come up in our previous discussion of “hot hands” in basketball (see, in this connection, reference [16]). Simpson, by the way, is the same Simpson that makes an appearance later when we discuss code-breaking at Bletchley Park during the Second World War
