標(biāo)題: Titlebook: Developments in Demographic Forecasting; Stefano Mazzuco,Nico Keilman Book‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘ 2020 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 20 [打印本頁] 作者: panache 時(shí)間: 2025-3-21 16:24
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書目名稱Developments in Demographic Forecasting讀者反饋學(xué)科排名
作者: 乳汁 時(shí)間: 2025-3-21 21:14 作者: 兵團(tuán) 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 03:13
Handbook of Clinical Nutrition and Agingn there is either a lack of good data, insufficient knowledge about underlying causal mechanisms, or apparent randomness in trends. In this paper, we describe the expert elicitation protocol developed by Statistics Canada in 2018 to inform the development of projection assumptions. The protocol may 作者: engrave 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 07:42 作者: Individual 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 10:33 作者: 虛構(gòu)的東西 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 13:02
Diabetes Mellitus Prevention and Treatmentce and pension providers. Several innovative stochastic methodologies have been proposed in most recent decades, the majority of them being based on age-specific mortality rates or on summary measures of the life table. The age-at-death distribution is an informative life-table function that provide作者: 虛構(gòu)的東西 時(shí)間: 2025-3-22 17:03
Handbook of Clinical Nutrition and StrokeMost of these forecasting models are based on the extrapolation of past trends, often assuming linear (or log-linear) development of mortality indicators, such as death rates or life expectancy. However, this assumption can be problematic in countries where mortality development has not been linear,作者: intricacy 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 00:13 作者: 暫停,間歇 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 01:40
Emerging Issues in the Care of the Elderlyic trends indicate that an update is necessary. When the forecaster strongly revises, from one forecast round to the next one, a forecast for a certain target year (for instance the life expectancy in 2050), this indicates large uncertainty connected to mortality predictions. The aim of this chapter作者: 輕推 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 07:44
David E. Hartman,Benjamin Kleinmuntz of interstate migration in Australia. For our illustration, we decompose 5-year census migration flow tables by state or territory of origin, state or territory of destination, 5-year age group and sex for seven census time periods from 1981–1986 to 2011–2016. The components are described over time作者: inspiration 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 10:37 作者: 洞察力 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 15:59 作者: photophobia 時(shí)間: 2025-3-23 21:18 作者: 隨意 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 01:26
Developments in Demographic Forecasting978-3-030-42472-5Series ISSN 1877-2560 Series E-ISSN 2215-1990 作者: Carcinogenesis 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 03:32 作者: Ingenuity 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 08:59
The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysishttp://image.papertrans.cn/d/image/270180.jpg作者: 誓言 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 11:33 作者: 輕快帶來危險(xiǎn) 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 15:32
Bayesian Disaggregated Forecasts: Internal Migration in Iceland,Local-level demographic forecasts are in high demand. Constructing local-level forecasts requires confronting the problems of random variation and sparse data. Bayesian methods offer promising solutions to both these problems. We illustrate using the example of inter-regional migration in Iceland.作者: Glucocorticoids 時(shí)間: 2025-3-24 21:06
David E. Hartman,Benjamin Kleinmuntztistics and calibration are then used to identify the best fitting models. The results of this research provide (i) insights into the different migration patterns of an important aspect of subnational population growth in Australia and (ii) potential inputs for standard or multiregional cohort component projection models.作者: 不可思議 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 01:36 作者: 發(fā)現(xiàn) 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 04:52 作者: 禁令 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 11:28
New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurement of Age and Ageing,anderson and Scherbov 2019). Population ageing can be measured in different ways. An example of this can found in the UN’s .. One way is to report on the forecasted increase in the number of people 60+ years old in the world.作者: COUCH 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 12:07
1877-2560 and codes available for selected chapters.This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for?forecasting evaluation ar作者: 倔強(qiáng)不能 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 18:13 作者: employor 時(shí)間: 2025-3-25 23:17
Coherent Mortality Forecasting with Standards: Low Mortality Serves as a Guide,erall accuracy or performance of mortality forecasting has improved since Lee and Carter (1992) introduced stochastic forecasting of mortality to the demographic community, and further improvements can undoubtedly be made.作者: 名義上 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 01:10 作者: absolve 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 04:59
Handbook of Clinical Nutrition and Agingbe useful for projection makers looking to adopt a formal approach to eliciting expert judgments, or for producing probabilistic projections, where it is necessary to obtain plausible estimates of uncertainty for components of population growth.作者: 知識分子 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 11:44 作者: Insufficient 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 13:15 作者: MURKY 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 19:07
Introduction,olume. We discuss deterministic and probabilistic approaches to forecast uncertainty, Bayesian and frequentist perspectives, the role of experts compared to purely data driven methods, and ways to communicate forecast results to the users.作者: incisive 時(shí)間: 2025-3-26 23:12
Using Expert Elicitation to Build Long-Term Projection Assumptions,be useful for projection makers looking to adopt a formal approach to eliciting expert judgments, or for producing probabilistic projections, where it is necessary to obtain plausible estimates of uncertainty for components of population growth.作者: Maximize 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 04:35
Post-transitional Demography and Convergence: What Can We Learn from Half a Century of World Populaty Rate below 2.5 children per woman before 1985. Moreover, in the period 2000–2015 the differences between groups of homogeneous countries actually increase. Further research can identify new regularities in order to predict future trends more accurately.作者: FER 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 07:30
,Projecting Proportionate Age–Specific Fertility Rates via Bayesian Skewed Processes,inference is performed via Monte Carlo methods, leveraging results on unified skew–normal distributions. The proposed approach is illustrated on Italian age–specific fertility rates from 1991 to 2014, providing forecasts until 2030.作者: 歡樂東方 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 12:28
Book‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘ 2020omponent emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for?forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addit作者: anagen 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 14:17
Book‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘ 2020 well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters..作者: myocardium 時(shí)間: 2025-3-27 21:32 作者: Sigmoidoscopy 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 00:59
Diabetes Mellitus Prevention and Treatmentulthood and Senescence, respectively. We then model the evolution of each component-specific death density with a relational model that associates a time-invariant standard to a series of observed distributions by means of a transformation of the age axis. Our approach allows us to capture mortality作者: 嬰兒 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 02:05
Handbook of Clinical Nutrition and Stroked? Second, we compare the forecast performance of 11 models for Danish females and males and for period and cohort data. Finally, we assess the implications of the various forecasts for Danish society, and, in particular, their implications for future lifespan variability and age at retirement.作者: senile-dementia 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 07:44 作者: expansive 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 10:43
1877-2560 r demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters..978-3-030-42474-9978-3-030-42472-5Series ISSN 1877-2560 Series E-ISSN 2215-1990 作者: Reclaim 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 18:18 作者: 信條 時(shí)間: 2025-3-28 22:34 作者: 火花 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 02:27 作者: gospel 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 04:45 作者: 連累 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 10:25 作者: Encumber 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 12:12
Stochastic Population Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Based on Evaluation by Experts,ly used cohort-component model, the inputs of the forecasting procedures are the fertility and mortality age schedules along with the distribution of migrants by age. Age schedules and distributions are derived from summary indicators, such as total fertility rates, male and female life expectancy a作者: installment 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 19:25 作者: FER 時(shí)間: 2025-3-29 20:28
Post-transitional Demography and Convergence: What Can We Learn from Half a Century of World Populapects Revisions. This chapter questions this assumption of “weak convergence” comparing actual data with the forecasted fertility, mortality, and migration trends computed by UN over the last half century. The “weak convergence” during 1985–2015 is not confirmed in countries that had a Total Fertili作者: 粗糙 時(shí)間: 2025-3-30 03:40
,Projecting Proportionate Age–Specific Fertility Rates via Bayesian Skewed Processes, approach for dynamic modeling of proportionate age–specific fertility rates via skewed processes. The model assumes a skew–normal distribution for the age at the moment of childbirth, while allowing the location and the skewness parameters to evolve in time via Gaussian processes priors. Posterior
